Statistical Sciences

Dunlap Institute for Astronomy & Astrophysics

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Black

Indigenous

Space

Subheadline

"We're trying to understand why these galaxies formed the way they did and how they became so big so quickly"

Jacqueline Antwi-Danso remembers a book from her junior high school library describing how stars are born and how the most massive stars die in gigantic explosions called supernovae.

“The book explained that there were objects out in space that gave off so much energy we could see and study them and make precise observations of their physical properties,” says Antwi-Danso, who credits her parents for nurturing her interest in education and reading while growing up in Ghana. “That just blew my mind.”

Today, Antwi-Danso is an NSERC Banting postdoctoral fellow at the ��ϲ��’s David A. Dunlap department of astronomy and astrophysics in the Faculty of Arts & Science. Her work focuses on studying massive galaxies that formed “when the universe was still just a baby.”

She is also active in supporting Black, Latinx and Indigenous women who are interested in a career in science.

She recently spoke to ��ϲ��’s Chris Sasaki about her career, research and goals.

Was there an important milestone in your journey to becoming an astronomer?

After high school, my plan was to take a gap year to figure out if I wanted to stay in Ghana and do something in the sciences at the university level or go elsewhere.

That’s when an opportunity came my way. There was a program run by the American Embassy in Accra for Ghanaian high school students interested in studying in the U.S. It provided mentorship for things like how to apply to schools in the U.S., how to write a good college application and how to select courses. They also helped you think about what you wanted to do in your career.

It was a big turning point in my life when I was selected to join the program. That’s how I learned about opportunities outside of Ghana and realized that if I was going to study astronomy, I would have to leave because we don't have astronomy at the collegiate level. And so, I made my decision to study astronomy at Texas Christian University.

Large, relatively nearby galaxies like this one took billions of years to form. Antwi-Danso is trying to determine how large galaxies in the very distant universe formed in a small fraction of that time (photo by ESA/Hubble & NASA, D. Jones Acknowledgement: G. Anand, L. Shatz.)

As an astronomer, what questions are you trying to answer?

I study massive galaxies in the very distant universe – some of the very first structures that formed after the Big Bang nearly 14 billion years ago. We're trying to understand why these galaxies formed the way they did and how they became so big so quickly. We’re finding them at increasingly earlier times, as far back as when the universe was just four per cent of its current age.

This goes against our understanding of the hierarchical formation of large structures – where massive galaxies like our Milky Way galaxy were formed from the merger of galaxies that were formed from stars, which, in turn, formed from clouds of gas and dust.

For our galaxy, it took billions of years to attain its current stellar mass. These distant, massive galaxies had only a fraction of the time to go through this process, so we have no idea how they formed so quickly. So, one of two things is happening: either there's something wrong with our observations or we need to revise our current models. That's the big problem I'm working on and I’m actually looking for a summer undergraduate student to work on this project.

Jacqueline Antwi-Danso speaks to students at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society (supplied image)

You’re working to support Black, Indigenous and Latinx women in science. Can you tell me more about that?

The League of Underrepresented Minoritized Astronomers (LUMA) is a peer mentoring organization for women in astronomy, physics and the planetary sciences that was formed in 2015 by Catherine Espaillat, who is the director of the Institute for Astrophysical Sciences at Boston University. She started LUMA because, as a Dominican American grad student, she felt isolated.

There weren’t many people in her field who looked like her, with whom she shared backgrounds. So, she created LUMA to be a community of people with similar experiences who could provide each other with support. I joined because I also realized there weren't many people in my field who looked like me. There were even fewer African astronomers. And, like Catherine, I wanted a place where we could come together as a community and support each other.

Do have you have plans to do the same type of work here in Canada?

I would like to continue this work, so I've been learning about and trying to understand what the Canadian science landscape looks like. I think the challenge in Canada is similar to the challenge that LUMA faces in the U.S. – there are very few Black, Indigenous or Latinx women in science in either country. So, yes, I would like to do similar work here. I just don't know what that looks like yet.

What about in Ghana?

One thing that I had in mind was trying to create some sort of pipeline for students in Ghana who might be interested in astronomy and might want to study in the U.S. or Canada. There are challenges, of course, but I’m talking to people who have been involved in similar projects and have found solutions to these challenges. For example, it might mean helping by providing mentorship to students who are already interested in physics and to students who are a little further along in their studies. I'm hopeful there are a number of ways to make this work.

How do you feel about receiving the NSERC Banting fellowship?

I’m very grateful and humbled to receive it. For me, it represents an exciting opportunity to work independently on my research, especially at ��ϲ�� with all the people in the Dunlap Institute (for Astronomy & Astrophysics), the department of astronomy and astrophysics, CITA (Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics) and the department of statistical sciences. I feel like ��ϲ�� is the perfect place for me because I’m combining astronomy with statistics and cosmological simulations to understand these really massive, distant galaxies. I’m having the time of my life, and I’m looking forward to seeing what the next few months will bring.

Why is COVID-19 more severe in some people? Researchers use genetics, data science to find out

Christopher.Sorensen — Wed, 25 Oct 2023 14:08:53 +0000

Why is COVID-19 more severe in some people? Researchers use genetics, data science to find out

Christopher.Sorensen Wed, 10/25/2023 - 10:08

Cutline

(Photo by Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images)

Tyler Irving

Topic

Institutional Strategic Initiatives

COVID-19

Data Sciences Institute

Princess Margaret Cancer Centre

Sinai Health

Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre

Temerty Faculty of Medicine

Unity Health

Computer Science

Dalla Lana School of Public Health

Hospital for Sick Children

Mount Sinai Hospital

Research & Innovation

St. Michael's Hospital

University Health Network

Women's College Hospital

Subheadline

With the help of ��ϲ��'s Data Sciences Institute, researchers from the university and partner hospitals gathered more than 11,000 full genome sequences from across Canada

Why do some people have a more severe course of COVID-19 disease than others? A genome sequence database created by an international collaboration of researchers, including many from the ��ϲ�� and partner hospitals, may hold the answers to this question – and many more.

The origins of the Canadian COVID-19 Human Host Genome Sequencing Databank, known as CGEn HostSeq, can be traced to the earliest days of the pandemic.

Lisa Strug, senior scientist at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) and academic director of ��ϲ��’s Data Sciences Institute, one of several ��ϲ�� institutional strategic initiatives, says genetic data was top of mind for her and other researchers in late 2019 and early 2020 as reports of a novel form of coronavirus emerged from China and then other locations across the globe.

Lisa Strug (Photo courtesy The Hospital for Sick Children)

“In my research, I use data science techniques to map the genes responsible for complex traits,” says Strug, who is a professor in ��ϲ��’s departments of statistical sciences and computer science in the Faculty of Arts & Science and in the biostatistics division of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

“We knew that genes were a factor in the severity of previous SARS infections, so it made sense that COVID-19, which is caused by a closely related virus, would have a genetic component, too.

“Very early on, I started getting messages from several scientists who wanted to set up different studies that would help us find those genes.”

Over the next few months, Strug – who is also the associate director of SickKids’ Centre for Applied Genomics, one of three sites across Canada that form CGEn, Canada’s national platform for genome sequencing infrastructure for research – collaborated with nearly 100 researchers from across ��ϲ�� and partner hospitals and institutions, as well as other researchers from across Canada to enrol individuals with COVID-19 and sequence their genomes.

Some of the key team members from the Toronto community included:

Stephen Scherer, chief of research at SickKids Research Institute and a University Professor in ��ϲ��’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine, as well as director of the ��ϲ�� McLaughlin Centre
Rayjean Hung, associate director of population health at the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, and a professor in ��ϲ��’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health
Angela Cheung, clinician-scientist at University Health Network, senior scientist at Toronto General Hospital Research Institute and a professor in ��ϲ��’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine
Upton Allen, head of the division of infectious diseases at SickKids and a professor in ��ϲ��’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine

The projected was initiated by Scherer and CGEn’s Naveed Aziz, along with Strug, and a $20-million grant was secured from Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, administered through Genome Canada.

“We had to go right to the top to get this project funded fast and our labs and teams worked seven days a week on the project right through the pandemic,” Scherer recalls.

Identifying associations between individual genes and complex traits typically requires thousands of genomes – both from those with the trait and those without. Though there was no shortage of cases to choose from, it was critical to gather and sequence DNA – and then organize the data in a way that would be ethical, efficient and useful to researchers now and in the future.

“One of our key mandates at the Data Sciences Institute is developing techniques and programs that ensure that data remains as open, accessible and as re-producible as it can be,” Strug says.

“That vision was brought to bear as we assembled the data infrastructure for this project – for example, ensuring that consent forms were as broad as possible so that this data could be linked with other sources, from electronic medical records to other health databases.

“We wanted to be sure that even after the COVID-19 pandemic was over this could be a national whole genome sequencing resource to ask all kinds of questions about health and our genes. The development of the database and its open nature also enabled Canada to collaborate effectively with similar projects in other countries.”

Partner hospitals and institutions:

The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids)
Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health
Mount Sinai Hospital, Sinai Health
St Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto
University Health Network (UHN)
Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, UHN
Ontario Institute for Cancer Research
Women’s College Hospital
Toronto General Hospital, UHN
Baycrest Health Sciences

In the end, the project gathered more than 11,000 full genome sequences from across Canada, representing patients with a wide range of health outcomes. Those data were then combined with even more sequences from patients in other countries under what came to be called the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative.

It didn’t take long for patterns to start to emerge. A paper published in Nature in 2021 identified 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19.

Since then, even more data have been added, and subsequent analysis has confirmed the significance of existing loci while also identifying new ones. The most recent update to the project, published in Nature earlier this year, brings the total number of distinct, genome-wide significant loci to 51.

“Identification of these loci can help one predict who might be more prone to a severe course of COVID-19 disease,” says Strug.

“When you identify a trait-associated locus, you can also unravel the mechanism by which this genetic region contributes to COVID-19 disease. This potentially identifies therapeutic targets and approaches that a future drug could be designed around.”

While it will take many more years to fully untangle the effects of the different loci that have been identified, Strug says that the database is already showing its worth in other ways.

“It can be difficult to find datasets with whole genome sequence and approved for linkage with other health information that are this large, and we want people to know that it is open and available for all kinds of research well beyond COVID through a completely independent data access committee,” she says.

“For example, several investigators from across Canada have been approved to use these data and we’ve even provided funding to trainees to encourage them to develop new data science methodologies or ask novel health questions using the CGen HostSeq data.”

“This was a humongous effort, where researchers from across Canada came together during the COVID-19 pandemic to recruit, obtain and sequence DNA from more than 11,000 Canadians in a systematic, co-operative, aligned way to create a made-in-Canada data resource that will hopefully be useful for years to come. I think that was really miraculous.”

David Andrews, a leading statistician whose election-night work touches millions, receives honorary degree

Christopher.Sorensen — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 16:18:28 +0000

David Andrews, a leading statistician whose election-night work touches millions, receives honorary degree Christopher.Sorensen Wed, 06/14/2023 - 12:18

Cutline

(photo by Lisa Sakulensky)

Scott Anderson

Topic

Temerty Faculty of Medicine

Convocation 2023

Honorary Degree

Victoria College

You may not have seen him on air, but behind the scenes at CTV, on every election night for almost five decades, David Andrews has crunched the numbers to ensure that the network never errs when it calls the results. He has served as the network’s chief statistician for more than 100 elections.

A former chair of the ��ϲ��’s department of statistical sciences, Andrews has also made an immense impact in the field of statistics itself – notably statistical computing and graphics. A data visualization technique that he developed decades ago, for example, makes it easier to identify variables that are correlated – and is still in use today.

For his innovative contributions to the field of statistical sciences and his leadership in promoting the application of statistical sciences to an ever-widening range of problems in modern society, Andrews today receives a Doctor of Laws, honoris causa, from the ��ϲ��.

Andrews earned a bachelor of science from ��ϲ�� in mathematics and physics in 1965, then undertook graduate work at the university in math and statistics, earning a PhD in statistics in 1968. For a few years, he lectured in statistics departments at Imperial College London and Princeton University. He then returned to ��ϲ�� as a professor in 1973, serving in various capacities through 2001. For many years, he taught in what is now the Temerty Faculty of Medicine, in the department of preventive medicine and biostatistics.

Early in his career, Andrews was a key participant in what was known as the “Princeton Robustness Study.” This collaborative effort in computation and applied statistics broke ground for later developments in statistical science, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

(photo by Lisa Sakulensky)

Andrews chaired ��ϲ��’s department of statistical sciences in the Faculty of Arts & Science from 1984 to 1992, recruiting four scholars to the department who would later receive the world’s most prestigious award in statistics. He also helped bring greater statistical rigour to research across the university.

“Working here was enormous fun” Andrews says in his convocation address to graduating students from Victoria College. “The range of fields was extraordinary. I learned much about diseases, the evolving methodology of genetics, clay tablet inscriptions from the Middle East, the vocabulary of the great Russian poet Brodsky and so on by applying common principles of statistics.”

Although he found the election work less complex than his academic research, Andrews noted that live television brought its own pressures – CTV needed the job to be done extremely fast and without error. “The calls, when we make them, are very public, the audience is huge, so our neck is stuck way out,” he told the Toronto Data Workshop in 2021. “We don’t dare make mistakes.”

Andrews doesn’t use polls in his election night calculations. He says calling the winner correctly means accurately predicting what will happen in each of the country’s (now) 338 ridings. Polls tend to present the national picture, with only a few responses from each riding. “They’re not useful to me” for deciding who will win an individual riding, he said during the workshop. Instead, he relies on information from Statistic Canada and Elections Canada.

Andrews’ interest in elections extends to developing a proposal to make the House of Commons more representative. As happens quite often, a political party can win a majority of seats with less than 50 per cent of the votes. Andrews’ proposal would implement ranked-choice balloting and apply it selectively in ridings where the winner’s margin is less than five per cent. By his estimate, this would have reduced the winning party’s majority of seats in the 2011 and 2015 elections to a minority, thus more accurately reflecting their minority share of the popular vote.

Andrews is a recipient of the Gold Medal from the Statistical Society of Canada and has served as its president.

In his convocation address, Andrews advises students graduating from Victoria College to seize chances as they arise. “Life is earnest, life is real. And by times it seems very messy. I just found it more satisfying to focus on the opportunities – including the impossible ones.”

From tires to brakes, ��ϲ�� researchers tackle 'non-tailpipe' air pollution from vehicles

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 16 Mar 2023 15:45:05 +0000

From tires to brakes, ��ϲ�� researchers tackle 'non-tailpipe' air pollution from vehicles

Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 03/16/2023 - 11:45

Cutline

As governments work to reign in vehicle emissions such as CO2, ��ϲ�� researchers are drawing attention to other harmful sources of vehicle-related air pollution, including brake pads and tires (photo by Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Ali Raza

Topic

Pollution

Research & Innovation

Sustainability

��ϲ�� Mississauga

With the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, car-related air pollution will be less of a concern, right? Think again, say a group of ��ϲ�� researchers who are studying the effects of air pollution from brakes and tires.

While the push to mandate EV aims to reduce tailpipe emissions such as carbon dioxide – the federal government has set a target of complete EV adoption by 2035 – swapping every vehicle on the road still won’t eliminate all the sources of air pollution that can impact human health.

That’s because brake pads, rotors and tires grind down over time and erode. This results in tons of particulate matter like heavy metals and microplastics polluting the air.

Matt Adams

“Millions of tires being driven on the road breaking down –that’s a problem,” says Matt Adams, an assistant professor in ��ϲ�� Mississauga’s department of geography, geomatics and environment. “It’s an emerging question in the field – it’s hard to know where the particles end up.”

Adams and Greg Evans, a professor of chemical engineering and applied chemistry in ��ϲ��’s Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, belong to a team of ��ϲ�� researchers who are conducting a three-year study to learn more about tailpipe vs. non-tailpipe emissions. The study is for a U.S.-based organization called the Health Effects Institute, which gathers research on the effects of air pollution. Other researchers include: Professor Marianne Hatzopoulou and Associate Professor Arthur Chan in the Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering; Associate Professor Meredith Franklin in the department of statistical sciences in the Faculty of Arts & Science; and McGill University’s Scott Weichenthal and University of Barcelona visiting professor Maria Pérez.

Evans says the source of vehicle pollution has shifted in recent years.

“Because of changes in vehicle technology, tailpipe emissions particularly from cars has dropped off a lot over the last two decades,” Evans says. “What we found with research we’ve done in Toronto is that, since 2013, non-tailpipe emissions have exceeded tailpipe emissions.”

While tires are made from a combination of plastics and rubber, brakes are made of heavy metals, including iron, barium and copper.

Particles of heavy metals, microplastics and micro rubber from tires and brakes pollute the air and can contribute to a range of negative health outcomes. Some heavy metals like copper can cause oxidative stress when inhaled. Lungs suffer from inflammation and an immune response is triggered.

“There is not an organ in your body that’s not impacted by air pollution,” Adams says. “We know your health risk is increased. We know a lot of these pollutants are carcinogens. [It] can contribute to cardiorespiratory issues.”

Evans says the researchers hope the study will improve methods of gathering vehicle pollution data.

“At the end of it, we’re hoping to have better methods to able say how much is coming from tailpipe and how much is non-tailpipe, and how do we identify hot spots,” he says.

The findings could potentially result in regulations for tire and brake emissions. In late 2022, the EU proposed new Euro 7 standards to reduce vehicle emissions and improve air quality. The new proposals were the first worldwide emissions standards to set additional limits for emissions from tires and brakes.

Greg Evans, a professor of chemical engineering and applied chemistry, says his research shows that non-tailpipe emissions have exceeded tailpipe emissions in Toronto since 2013 (supplied photo)

Adams says there are additional considerations when switching over to EVs, including the source of electric power, lithium sourcing and related infrastructure.

“We’re trying to translate the links of how and where you are in the urban environment to your exposure [to air pollution], and then using that to plan cities better for our health,” Adams says.

Planning more healthy cities means building urban areas where people can walk, cycle and take public transit in addition to adopting EVs.

“Air pollution is tricky,” Adams says. “It’s invisible for the most part –we don’t smell it. We’re trying to quantify the intangible for the average person.”

��ϲ�� students score win at NFL’s Big Data Bowl: Toronto Sun

bresgead — Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:12:12 +0000

��ϲ�� students score win at NFL’s Big Data Bowl: Toronto Sun

bresgead Fri, 03/03/2023 - 13:12

Cutline

Top to bottom: ��ϲ�� undergraduate students Daniel Hocevar, Aaron White and Hassaan Inayatali (photo by Tyler Irving)

Topic

Computer Science

Undergraduate Students

A trio of ��ϲ�� students are champions of the NFL’s Big Data Bowl, the Toronto Sun reports.

Hassaan Inayatali, Aaron White and Daniel Hocevar emerged victorious in the sports analytics showdown thanks to their improved statistical model of the “pressure” on the pocket of space around the quarterback.

The trio – who are all on the leadership team for ��ϲ�� Sports Analytics Student Group (UTSPAN) – were among eight finalists who presented their projects to football professionals at the 2023 NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

Inayatali, a third-year engineering science student in the Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, told the Toronto Sun that the US$30,000 cash prize from the competition will be split among himself, White, a second-year statistical sciences student, and Hocevar, a third-year computer science student – both in the Faculty of Arts & Science.

“For all of us, while we were really happy to have won, it was more a validation – just because the way we were proceeding was correct,” Inayatali told the newspaper. “All of the work we put into it, down to the nitty-gritty detail, it all paid off.”

��ϲ�� to confer honorary degrees on 14 academic, business and community leaders

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 15:42:32 +0000

��ϲ�� to confer honorary degrees on 14 academic, business and community leaders

Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 02/16/2023 - 10:42

Cutline

All photos supplied except for Beverly Glenn-Copeland (by Briana Boyd), James and Louise Temerty (by George Pimentel) and Sara Seager (by Justin Knight).

Mariam Matti

Topic

Temerty Faculty of Medicine

Convocation 2023

Alumni

Thomas Fisher Rare Book Library

A leading stem cell scientist and biotech entrepreneur. An influential couple whose philanthropy champions health care, education and community-building. A former head of state who prioritized gender equality and sustainability in her public service career. An inspirational business leader who is breaking down systemic barriers facing Black entrepreneurs. And an internationally acclaimed filmmaker whose work has put anti-colonial resistance and Indigenous persistence in the spotlight.

These six luminaries – Derrick Rossi, co-founder of Moderna, philanthropists James and Louise Temerty, former prime minister of New Zealand Helen Clark, business leader Wesley Hall and filmmaker Alanis Obomsawin – are among the 14 eminent individuals who will receive honorary degrees from the ��ϲ�� this year and will address graduating students at convocation ceremonies in spring or fall.

“Through their outstanding contributions to their respective fields and beyond, these exceptional individuals have each made a tremendous impact on the world,” said ��ϲ�� President Meric Gertler.

“Their innovation, vision and generosity are an inspiration to all members of the ��ϲ�� community – and I’m delighted that we will have an opportunity to honour their achievements at our convocation ceremonies this year.”

Here is the full list of honorary degree recipients for 2023.

David F. Andrews, professor emeritus and a ��ϲ�� alumnus, is recognized for his innovative, foundational and transformative contributions to the field of statistical sciences and for his service to the public good. A chair of the department of statistics (now statistical sciences) at ��ϲ�� for eight years, Andrews helped bring statistical knowledge to research work at the university and aided media commentators tasked with predicting the results of more than 100 Canadian elections.

Helen Clark is recognized for her ongoing, globally impactful commitment to a just, thriving, equitable and sustainable world. As prime minister of New Zealand from 1999 to 2008, Clark led societal change and broke down barriers. She also served eight years as administrator of the UN Development Programme and has held other leadership roles with global organizations.

David F. Denison, a ��ϲ�� alumnus, is recognized as a corporate leader in the for-profit and non-profit sectors, and for his outstanding service to the university. A former CEO of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Denison has contributed to Canada’s global reputation for having an innovative and effective retirement income system. He also improved the performance of ��ϲ��’s endowment and pension funds (now part of University Pension Plan of Ontario) as co-chair of the university’s investment committee.

Beverly Glenn-Copeland is internationally recognized for his innovative and influential musicianship and sterling artistic reputation. Throughout his 50-year recording career, Glenn-Copeland has received national and international acclaim as a singer and composer. A Black trans artist, he is a strong advocate on behalf of Black and LGBTQ2S+ communities in Canada and abroad, and has influenced new generations of artists.

Wesley Hall is recognized for his innovative corporate and entrepreneurial leadership, and for his outstanding service to the local community as a champion for equity and the removal of systemic barriers affecting the Black community. When he was 34, Hall founded Kingsdale Advisors – a leading shareholder advisory firm with offices across North America. He also founded the BlackNorth Initiative following George Floyd’s death in 2020 and partnered with ��ϲ��’s Rotman School of Management in 2021 to introduce Canada’s first Black entrepreneurship and leadership course.

Robert Houle is recognized for being an internationally celebrated Indigenous artist and curator known for his revisioning of the history of abstraction and representation through an Indigenous lens. A residential school survivor, Houle – who grew up in Sandy Bay First Nation – has been instrumental in bridging the gap between Indigenous art and the contemporary art scene. His art and advocacy have played a pivotal role in working to change the history and representation of Indigenous Peoples.

Barbara Jackman, a ��ϲ�� alumna, is recognized for her transformative impact on Canadian immigration and refugee law, and her outstanding service for the public good as an unyielding advocate for social justice and human rights. One of Canada’s foremost immigration and refugee lawyers, Jackman has shaped Canadian legal practices related to migration and worked tirelessly to protect the human rights of non-citizens. She also played an instrumental role in the Student Legal Aid Society at ��ϲ��’s Faculty of Law.

Claire Kennedy, a ��ϲ�� alumna, is recognized as one of Canada’s leading tax lawyers and for her outstanding service to the university as a tireless advocate and volunteer. A senior adviser of clients and industries at Bennett Jones LLP, Kennedy served on ��ϲ��’s Governing Council for nine years, including four as chair. She is a co-chair of ��ϲ��’s Defy Gravity campaign who has also served as a member of the dean’s advisory committee at the Rotman School of Management and held several advisory roles in the Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering.

Alanis Obomsawin, one of the most acclaimed Indigenous directors in the world, is recognized for being an internationally renowned, multi-disciplinary artist dedicated to the cultivation of exemplary documentary film practice grounded in both social justice and artistic achievement. Over the course of a six-decade career, she has created 54 films with the National Film Board of Canada. A member of the Abenaki Nation, Obomsawin is a dedicated mentor to new generations of Indigenous artists and activists.

Derrick Rossi, a ��ϲ�� alumnus, is recognized for his groundbreaking scientific research that has been translated into therapeutics with global impact, and for his outstanding service for the public good through his extraordinary contributions to global public health and biotechnology innovation. A co-founder of biotech firm Moderna and the CEO of Convelo Therapeutics, Rossi has contributed to the development of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines through his research. He is heavily involved in the ��ϲ�� community through speaking events and mentorship.

Sara Seager, a ��ϲ�� alumna, is recognized as an internationally renowned leader in astrophysics and planetary science, and as a pioneer of the field of exoplanet atmospheres. A professor of physics at MIT, Seager leads multiple international collaborations dedicated to finding signs of life on other planets and actively works on building confidence among young people, women and those who are neurodivergent.

James and Louise Temerty are recognized for their dedication to bettering the lives of others through a sustained, thoughtful and generous commitment to philanthropy and volunteerism, and for their outstanding service to the university. Their donation to ��ϲ��’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine, which was renamed in their honour, remains the largest single monetary gift in Canadian philanthropic history. They have also supported countless important causes at ��ϲ��, including COVID-19 research, the Scholars-at-Risk program and students from Ukraine whose studies were disrupted by war.

Michael Walsh is recognized for his commitment to the Thomas Fisher Rare Book Library, his transformative gift of the Walsh Philosophy Collection, and his outstanding service for the public good by ensuring that the collection remains an accessible resource for scholarship. His donation of rare books and early prints from before 1500 contributed to the Thomas Fisher Rare Book Library’s status as one of the leading rare book libraries in the world.

��ϲ�� students in finals of NFL’s Big Data Bowl with improved ‘pocket pressure’ model

Christopher.Sorensen — Fri, 10 Feb 2023 15:56:25 +0000

��ϲ�� students in finals of NFL’s Big Data Bowl with improved ‘pocket pressure’ model

Christopher.Sorensen Fri, 02/10/2023 - 10:56

Cutline

Hassaan Inayatali, Aaron White and Daniel Hocevar are finalists in the National Football League’s Big Data Bowl after developing a statistical model that provides real-time "pressure" analysis of the pocket of space around the quarterback (supplied photo)

Topic

Computer Science

Undergraduate Students

A group of ��ϲ�� students will join an estimated 100 million people this weekend to watch Super Bowl LVII – but they’ll be seeing the game differently than most other fans.

Hassaan Inayatali, Aaron White and Daniel Hocevar recently learned that they are finalists in the National Football League’s Big Data Bowl, one of the largest sports analytics competitions in the world.

The three students developed a statistical model that transforms data derived from motion-tracking chips embedded in the players’ uniforms into animated heat maps. The colourful visualizations provide real-time analysis of the all-important pocket of space around the quarterback, including the amount of pressure it is under at any given moment and how long it is likely to last.

“Our tool provides a quantitative way to compare plays and answer the really critical questions that players and coaches have,” says Inayatali, a third-year engineering science student in the Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering.

“For example, which offensive lines are the best at protecting their quarterback? Which defensive lines are best at rushing the other team’s quarterback? And which individual players are having the biggest impact?”

Like his teammates, Inayatali was a big sports fan growing up. Although he preferred baseball and hockey, he says he was more than willing to watch any game he had the chance to see.

Even so, the concept of sports analytics wasn’t really on his radar until he attended the fall clubs fair in his first year as an undergraduate student. That’s where he learned about the ��ϲ�� Sports Analytics Student Group (UTSPAN).

A statistical model created by three ��ϲ�� undergraduate students shows how the pressure on the pocket of space around the quarterback evolves over the course of a given football play (image: Hassaan Inayatali, Aaron White and Daniel Hocevar)

“I was lucky enough to go to their very first meeting, and kind of fell in love with what they were doing,” he says.

“It’s an opportunity to apply all the coding and mathematics I’ve been learning as part of my engineering science degree to sports, which has always been one of my passions.”

Today, Inayatali, White and Hocevar are all on the leadership team for UTSPAN, which is advised by Timothy Chan, a professor in the department of mechanical and industrial engineering and ��ϲ��’s associate vice-president and vice-provost, strategic initiatives. The group holds weekly meetings covering different topics in sports analytics and is open to people of all experience levels.

They also post regularly on Kaggle, an online hub for the sports analytics community that hosts open-source code, public datasets and notices about big data competitions.

It was there that the team first heard about the Big Data Bowl. The competition, which made its debut in 2019, challenges students and professionals to contribute to the NFL’s continuing evolution of the use of advanced analytics.

The three students entered this year’s competition and were supplied with eight weeks of data from the beginning of the NFL’s 2021 season. The package included play-by-play data, including scores and number of completed passes, as well as scouting data – such as whether a player was hit, sacked or hurried.

But most importantly for the team’s purposes, it also included detailed player tracking data derived from a system of sensors and radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags embedded in the players’ uniforms.

“Basically, what you get is a spreadsheet that shows each player’s X and Y position on the field, down to an accuracy of two decimal places – so one one-hundredth of a yard,” says White, a second-year statistical sciences student, who, like third-year computer science student Hocevar, studies in the Faculty of Arts & Science. “And this position is updated ten times per second.”

The team then combed through the published scientific literature on sports analytics, looking for examples of how to turn this data into useful insights. In the end, their inspiration came not from North American football, but from soccer in the form of a paper published by researchers from Simon Fraser University and F.C. Barcelona in 2018.

“That work focused on modelling the spaces between players and determining which ones are most valuable,” says Inayatali.

“So that’s the basis for how we modelled the pocket, but then we layered on two more concepts. The first is pocket pressure, which is an indication for how much control each team has over the space at a given moment. The second is pocket longevity, or how long the pocket is likely to last.

“These concepts previously existed, but nobody had brought them together like this before.”

The team created a notebook in Kaggle that outlined their approach via a series of diagrams and sample codes and then submitted it to the NFL in early January. The results were announced on Feb 1.

“I was actually at the dentist at that moment, and I was frantically refreshing the web page on my phone,” says White. “When I found out that we made the finals, I showed it to the dentist. They had no idea what it was all about, but they said congratulations all the same.”

The team is one of only eight selected to participate in the finals – and one of only two composed of undergraduate students – from a field of more than 300 entries. Their finalist entry earned them a $10,000 prize and an all-expenses-paid trip to attend the 2023 NFL Combine in Indianapolis, which is set to kick off at the end of the month.

There, they will have four minutes to present their project to more than 200 football professionals. If successful, they will win a further $20,000 and a chance to be a part of NFL history.

“In the past, winners of the Big Data Bowl often become sports analytics professionals working for major teams,” says White. “The two teams in this year’s Super Bowl – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles – each have one winner of the 2021 Big Data Bowl working for them. That would really be a dream come true.”

Want to improve your HORSE play? Stats expert breaks down the popular basketball game's odds

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:03:09 +0000

Want to improve your HORSE play? Stats expert breaks down the popular basketball game's odds

Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 06/16/2022 - 11:03

Cutline

Daniel and Jeffrey Rosenthal at Willcocks Common (photo by Margaret Fulford)

Josslyn Johnstone

Topic

Math

For NBA stars and driveway basketball enthusiasts alike, the game HORSE conjures up memories of intense schoolyard competitions and boisterous neighbourhood hangouts.

Now, a professor at the ��ϲ�� has delved into the statistical probabilities of the game – and discovered that simplicity is often the way to go (even though it's not as fun to watch.)

“When I was growing up, I would play with my dad, and I remember that he would attempt these really easy shots,” recalls Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor in the department of statistical sciences in the Faculty of Arts & Science.

“That goes against what most of us would think to do, which is to make a difficult shot in hopes that your opponent won’t be able to match it.”

When shooting hoops together at the Willcocks Common just south of Sidney Smith Hall last summer, Rosenthal and his half-brother Daniel, a ��ϲ�� alumnus who studied advanced mathematics as well as philosophy and psychology, wondered if they could mathematically determine the effect of shot difficulty on the probability of winning points.

“It may not be the deepest mathematical analysis we’ve ever done,” Rosenthal says. “But trying to justify the rules of HORSE presented us with an interesting question about the probabilities: What is the optimal shot to take to increase your chances of winning?”

The co-authors published their results in the June/July 2022 issue of the journal Notices of the American Mathematical Society.

For those who need a refresher on the rules: HORSE is a game for two or more players who take turns attempting to land certain shots.

If player one calls a shot and makes it – for example, a hook shot, or a shot that hits the backboard – player two must match it. If they don't, player two is assigned a letter and the other player scores a point. If a player calls a shot but misses, their turn is over and it's their opponent's turn. The game goes on until one player has five points while the other has five letters – H-O-R-S-E.

“Where the controversy comes in is, if you make your shot, and the other player also makes the shot, nobody gets a point … but whose turn should it be after that?” Rosenthal says. “According to the traditional rules, it's your turn again to call and make the shot.”

“Now as a statistician, I see how my dad’s strategy of attempting an easy shot affects the probability and works to his advantage,” says Rosenthal, whose dad is a retired ��ϲ�� prof. “You are more likely to sink an easy shot and ultimately score a point. But that makes for a pretty boring and predictable game” — nothing like the 2020 NBA HORSE Challenge, where pros took unusual shots to show off their skills and beat their opponent.

Is there a way to improve the rules of the classic game?

“There isn’t a commissioner of HORSE enforcing official rules or anything, so our logic is to modify the rules to have the turn pop over to the other player. That way the opponent gets a chance to call a shot,” Rosenthal says.

For the sake of mathematical analysis, the researchers had to make some assumptions – they didn’t account for variables like height that could influence the outcome, for instance. The first analysis in their paper supposes that both players are of equal ability, which means that each shot will be equally challenging for both players.

“Under the traditional rules, it’s smart to take an easy shot – like standing next to the net and hitting it off the backboard – because if you both get it in, then at least you get to take another turn,” Rosenthal explains. “Eventually one of you will miss and the probability will be nearly 50/50 – you’ll have almost a 50 per cent chance of scoring a point and giving a letter to your opponent.”

Under the modified rules, where the turn switches to the other player if both players make the shot, he says it is best for one player to choose a trickier shot where they have a good chance of getting it in, but their opponent has a good chance of missing. “Whatever difficult shot you choose – standing further away on the three-point line, a reverse lay-up, shooting with your weaker hand – the optimal shot is one that has a 50 per cent probability of making it.”

To make it more mathematically intricate, the co-authors next looked at other scenarios.

“One assumption we made is that with every shot, player one has a certain probability of making it and player two’s probability is a certain multiple of that, say 80 per cent,” says Rosenthal. “So, if player one has an easy shot, it's not quite as easy for player two. If player one has a hard shot, it’s a bit harder for player two. Then we tried to mathematically say, what's the optimal shot for you to choose in those cases, too?”

Though the mathematics get a little more complicated, the basic idea for how to win HORSE remains the same: under the traditional rules, choose easy shots for the best chance of scoring points. Under the modified rules, shots with a medium level of difficulty are optimal.

With the NBA playoffs nearly over, and warmer days ahead, Rosenthal is looking forward to hitting up the Willcocks Common once again. As a go-to spot for pick-up games in the university community, the court was recently outfitted with new nets and rims.

As Rosenthal puts it, fun papers like this one increase understanding of esoteric mathematical concepts by bringing them to life through relatable examples.

“Some people play sports in the schoolyard and others do math problems in the classroom,” he says. “We’re showing how you can connect these two worlds, using mathematical thinking to figure out what to do on the basketball court.”

What are Canada's chances? Stats expert weighs in on World Cup odds

geoff.vendeville — Fri, 01 Apr 2022 23:28:30 +0000

What are Canada's chances? Stats expert weighs in on World Cup odds

geoff.vendeville Fri, 04/01/2022 - 19:28

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Former Serbian footballer Bora Milutinović holds the card showing the name of Canada during the draw for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar (photo by Francois-Xavier Marit/AFP via Getty Images)

Geoffrey Vendeville

Topic

Global Lens

Global

Sports

Current world number two-ranked Belgium. 2018 World Cup runner-up Croatia. And Morocco, unbeaten in African qualifying.

Gulp.

The three countries stand in the way of the Canadian men’s soccer team reaching the knockout stages of the FIFA World Cup – a feat that would make history.

“We’re the underdogs,” Canadian soccer star Alphonso Davies said on the livestreaming platform Twitch. “At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter. We’re there to compete – and we will compete.”

After the draw was announced on Friday afternoon, soccer fans and pundits around the world were left to debate their team’s chances of advancing.

Though he admittedly doesn’t follow soccer very closely, Jeffrey Rosenthal is better placed than most to calculate Canada’s odds of success.

The professor in the ��ϲ��’s department of statistical sciences in the Faculty of Arts & Science has a PhD in math from Harvard University, received the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies’ highest honour and wrote five books – including the national bestseller Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities (2005).

An additional bonafide: In 2019, he tipped the Toronto Raptors to win the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors using a “simple” statistical model he developed based on regular season performance.

Would he bet on Canada making it out of the group stage in their first World Cup appearance in 36 years? Can Les Rouges score their first World Cup goal?

Rosenthal shared his initial observations with ��ϲ�� News immediately after the draw on Friday.

Canada has been drawn with Belgium, Croatia, and Morocco in World Cup Group F. How likely is it that Canada will finish in the top two and advance into the Round of 16?

Well, it is going to be tough. Canada almost made it to Pot 3 before being edged into Pot 4 by Tunisia at the last minute. That means the other three teams in our group are all ranked higher than we are. Belgium is currently ranked second in the world, Croatia is 16^th and Morocco is 24^th, while Canada is now ranked 38^th. So, if I were a betting man, I would have to bet against Canada advancing.

On the other hand, Canada has been playing fairly well lately. And soccer matches are inherently unpredictable because of the low scores – just last week 62^nd-ranked North Macedonia defeated sixth-ranked Italy 1-0 and knocked them out of the cup. So, it is certainly possible that Canada will advance. I haven't done a careful study, but if you ask for my gut feeling, I would say Canada has about a 30 per cent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

The last time the Canadian men played in a World Cup, in 1986, they lost all three of their group stage games and didn't score a single goal. How likely is it that Canada gives us at least one goal this time around?

I'm pretty confident about that. Canada has scored at least one goal in seven of their past 10 matches. By that measure, the probability of failing to score at least one goal in all three of their upcoming group matches is only 2.7 per cent, which means they are 97.3 per cent certain to score at least once. Now, some of their group opponents might be stronger than their previous adversaries, so this calculation isn’t totally fair. But I would still give them more than an 80 per cent chance of scoring at least one goal.

And don't sell their 1986 performance too short. They may not have scored, but they only narrowly lost 1-0 to top-tier France, staying even until the final 11 minutes. I remember it well, because I was a teenager backpacking in England at the time. Everyone I spoke to was impressed that Canada had kept the match so close against the formidable French team.

No team outside of Europe and South America has ever won the World Cup. What's the probability of Canada causing the biggest upset in World Cup history by winning the whole thing?

Very small, unfortunately. I haven't done a detailed statistical analysis of this. But with so many stronger and more experienced teams in the cup, it is virtually inconceivable that Canada will be this year’s champion. Maybe one chance in a thousand or so.

Canada has a few well-regarded and upcoming players, but Alphonso Davies stands out as an established, world-class player at the highest level. If he were to miss the World Cup for some reason, how badly would it hurt Canada's chances?

Soccer is a team sport, but individual stars can make a big difference – especially on a team like Canada with fewer top players. On the other hand, Davies missed six matches this year due to COVID-19 and myocarditis, but Canada won four of them anyway. So, Canada can still win games without Davies, too.

Perhaps a more positive way to think about it is that Canada is a solid squad even without Davies, and if Davies does manage to remain healthy and join the team in Qatar then that will provide them with an extra bonus.

How was Canada’s group put together in the first place? It seems like the make-up of a group can have a big impact on a team's chances of progressing. How does FIFA do this and is it fair?

I'm glad you asked – this is the focus of my latest research project. Assigning the groups is challenging because of all the rules and restrictions – each group must include one team from each of the four pots, no group can have more than two teams from Europe or more than one from South America, etc. FIFA deals with this by randomly selecting teams, one at a time, and placing each one in the next available group that will not violate any restrictions.

The FIFA method works OK, but it skews the probabilities so the various possible valid assignments do not all have the same chance of occurring. This changes the probabilities of what groups the teams end up in in unexpected ways.

For example, if every valid complete group assignment were equally likely then the United States should have a probability of nine per cent of ending up in the coveted Group A with Qatar. But under FIFA's sequential draw method, that probability jumps to 12.5 per cent – much higher. So, the U.S. ended up with a significant advantage going into the draw simply due to the idiosyncrasies of FIFA's method of conducting it.

Is there a way to improve the draw procedure so the correct probabilities are maintained while still meeting FIFA's requirements in terms of the pots, minimizing teams from the same continent being drawn together and so forth?

Yes, indeed. Jointly with Gareth Roberts of the University of Warwick, we have developed several alternative methods of conducting the World Cup group draw, which gives every valid complete assignment exactly the same probability of occurring, while still following all of the specified restrictions about the group compositions.

Our simplest method uses a computer algorithm called a “rejection sampler,” which is fast and simple and gives precisely equal probabilities. Our second method involves picking teams from balls in urns, one at a time, similar to FIFA's approach – except carefully adjusting the numbers of balls at each step to ensure equal probability of every valid assignment. Our third method involves repeatedly swapping the group assignments of different pairs of teams to mix up the groups in exciting and unexpected ways, while always keeping equal assignment probabilities.

I have created a website where all three of our methods can be tried interactively. I hope that readers will check it out to see first-hand how the various draws work.

In addition to making the groups, the World Cup draw itself is a popular television spectacle for fans – would any of these proposed draw methods still make for compelling viewing?

They would! Not so much our first method, which has the computer do all the work behind the scenes. But our second method involves picking balls from urns, which is similar to the current FIFA method – so it should be just as compelling. And our third method might be the most entertaining of all since pairs of teams are repeatedly swapped leading to unexpected and surprising and exciting changes in the group compositions.

We actually developed those last two methods specifically with the fans’ entertainment in mind. So, we think they would work very well. In fact, we hope that FIFA will check out our webpage themselves and then ask to use our methods for the next World Cup.

And the nominees are ... ��ϲ�� student examines whether Tony Award nods boost Broadway ticket sales

Christopher.Sorensen — Fri, 24 Sep 2021 16:27:27 +0000

And the nominees are ... ��ϲ�� student examines whether Tony Award nods boost Broadway ticket sales

Christopher.Sorensen Fri, 09/24/2021 - 12:27

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(Photo by Soudan Ouyang/Unsplash)

Yara Said

Topic

Alumni

Research & Innovation